Countries with the most vaccines will recover from the economic crisis sooner
Israel, the United Kingdom, and the United States vaccinated more than 40% of the population with the first dose (and in the case of the first two countries, many more). These countries will be the first to recover from the economic crisis. Sky Wall
When I do the vaccination
Vaccines are the only way out of the epidemic, as well as from the economic crisis. As the Bank of Italy recently mentioned this: if the vaccination plan is respected, Italy’s GDP growth in 2021 could exceed 4 per cent.
At the moment, we know which countries are advancing with vaccinations IsraelAnd the United kingdom e United States of America. It is no coincidence that these countries are the ones that are speeding up economic recovery from the crisis.
Indicators also show Small and medium-sized companies (PMI) in the service sector, and thus shops, restaurants, hotels and bars for example, and it is precisely those activities that suffer the most from closures. This data is the results of surveys that corporate purchasing managers respond to: they measure improvement if it is above 50, and worsens if it is lower. Basically, SMEs measure the rate of business confidence: if firms expect an improvement in the economy, they will issue more purchase orders and thus the index will grow. at United kingdom The improvement in expectations was first measured at the beginning of April: the last time was in September. The United States of America Instead, they have been in a growing trend for some time, and in April they set a new record.
On the other hand, for Israel, PMI data is not available. However, the Bank of Israel released statistics for Payments in stores using credit cards. As can be seen from the chart, at the beginning of April a record trend record was reached compared to January 2020 (pre-pandemic level). Another encouraging data on the economic recovery of the most fortified countries.
Also, from a macroeconomic standpoint, countries that offer vaccines appear to be better than others. Israel, the United States and the United Kingdom are actually among the countries that have improved the most Growth prospects. International Monetary Fund In early April It revised its GDP growth forecast for 2021. In the context of the general improvement, compared to previous estimates (Posted in JanuaryIt was the countries that specifically developed vaccines that improved their chances the most. The US (with the help of the Biden plan as well) has moved from a rating of + 5.1% to + 6.4%, the UK from 4.5 to 5.3 while Israel from 4.1 to 5. European countries like France and Germany, on the other hand, have much smaller increases.
But the economic acceleration will not be surprising. These countries, while advancing with vaccinations, have not yet returned to normal. According to Google data, The commute to malls, bars, restaurants, stores, etc. has not yet reached pre-pandemic levels, due to the recent closures that were only eased in the past few days. Only when this happens will the economy be able to recover with all of its activity.
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