Fantasy Playbook: NFL Week 17 Shadow Report, Lineup Locks and Expected Scores -

Projected scores for all NFL games;All-in-one scenario for fantasy exploits or avoidance and series locks.

Welcome to The Playbook for week 17, which kicks off Thursday with three Christmas contests.

Score predictions in this column;over/underOdds to win and fantastic for seasonal leagues and DFS.Includes easy-to-digest advice.This guide covers sit/start;We'll help you make a variety of decisions, including last-minute waiver wire additions and team selections.

Additionally, we've folded a separate column of Shadow reports into play-by-play breakdowns here.Our play-by-play data allows us to identify defensive schemes and every wide receiver and cornerback on every play.By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can provide the best fantasy guidance each week.

If you want to take a closer look at some of that data, check out our Weekly Shadow Report: WR vs. Check the CB Cheat Sheet. You can also see each team's latest schedule update for the season.

All of this advice focuses on 12-team PPR leagues with standard scoring and relatively standard lineup setups (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), though I often refer to "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters.The graph shows all players projected to score at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/ST.for every position by opposing defenses this season.

The DFS values in the charts below (and their relative strengths) are given for Sunday's big slate only, so there are no values for games scheduled for Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night or Monday.For a closer look at the best picks for Sunday's big slate, you can check out Week 17's DraftKings DFS cheat sheet.

(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will line up almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player may be ranked slightly higher or lower due to other factors, including profit or risk. This column is subject to updates over the weekend, although, at a minimum, rankings are updated on the site and projections are always updated in-game before play begins.)

JOW-IN

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders

Projected Score: Cowbois 29, Commanders 20

Locked Lineup: Dak Prescott, Javonte Williams, CD Lamb, George Pickens, Terry McLaurin.

Fantasy Scoop: Chris Rodriguez Jr. returned from a one-game absence Sunday and resumed his role as team leader.Rodriguez had 15 hits and one sack on 28 shots, compared to one hit and three hits on 12 shots for Jeremy McNichols and eight hits and zero on 11 shots for Jacory Croskey-Merritt.

Rodriguez found the end zone for the fifth time in the last eight games, and his fantasy point total (13.9) was a season high.But the veteran back has remained a non-factor in the passing game (12 yards on just three targets in 12 games), greatly limiting his fantasy appeal.Ranks in the top eight in touchdowns and fantasy points allowed to running backs.

Shadow report: Washington's receivers need to upgrade against an injury-plagued Dallas defense, including the second-most in the area for the most receiving touchdowns in fantasy this season.Dallas has allowed the most yardage and touchdowns (26), and ranks in the top two among receivers in yards per target (9.7) and catch rate (69%).Josh Johnson is more of a risk under center, but McLaurin should stay on the roster and Deebo Samuel is on the WR3 radar.

Over/Under: 49.7 (Highest 4)

Likely to Win: Cowboys 63% (8th highest)

Detroit Sing @ Minnesota Vikings

Expected score: Lions 24, Vikings 17

Alineación de Glais: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St.Brown, Jameson Williams

The Shadow Report: Detroit's receivers are up against a Minnesota defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to a receiver overall this season.Minnesota has allowed the second-fewest catches and sixth-fewest TDs (eight) to the position.After limiting the Giants' receivers to 7.0 fantasy points against the Vikings on Sunday.Only 9 receivers have passed.Double-digit fantasy points against Minnesota this season.St. Brown and Williams are locked in (the pair averaged 35.3 points in the Week 9 meeting), but there is more "danger" ahead.

Shadow report: Minnesota's receivers improved against a Detroit defense that allowed the second-most fantasy points to receivers, including the third-most on the perimeter.The Lions allowed the third-most rushing yards and second-most TDs (20) to the position.An opposing player averaged 26.5 fantasy points against Detroit in four of the team's last five games (Wan'Dale Robinson, Dontayvion Wicks, Ryan Flournoy, Puka Nacua).With Max Brosmer stepping in for the injured J.J. McCarthy, Jefferson (85 yards on eight carries last week) is on the WR3 radar, while Jordan Addison is best left on the bench, even in this game.

Over/Under: 40.9 (13th highest)

The problems will win: Lumons 5% (14th highest)

Denver Broncos @ Kutha Kansas Chiefs

Predicted Score: Broncos 23, Bucks 18

Warehouse locks: RJ Harvey, Courtland Sutton

Fantasy Scoop: With Gardner Minshew set to join Patrick Mahomes on IR, Chris Oladokun is set to start at quarterback for the Chiefs.The 2022 seventh-round pick has rocked Kansas City in recent years, but all 16 of his touchdown attempts came last week in Minshew's favor.The 28-year-old finished with a solid 11 yards.111, but was sacked four times.

Especially against Denver's impressive defense, Oladokun isn't a fantasy starter, and his presence means we're unlikely to get anything decent out of the backfield and pass rushers.That includes Travis Kelce, who was limited to 6 yards on four targets Sunday and now has just one catch in two of his last three games.Kelce is a borderline starting option at best.As for the team's wide receivers...

Over/Under: 40.3 (14th highest)

Probability to win: Broncos 67% (4th highest)

Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers

Expected Score: Chargers 21, Texans 20

Konci's line-up: Nico Collins

Fantasy Scoop: Woody Marks was left in the last week and Houston (24 shot, 15 take, 15 carrier), 6 cars, 1 car.Irigine in 20 take (a 15 bone bones seven times for taking).

If Marks returns this week, he will be little more than a flex option against a Chargers defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points in eight weeks.If Marks goes out, Jordan will be an uninspired flex option in this matchup, especially with Chubb and Ogunbowale also in the role.

Shadow report: Texas receivers should be downgraded against a Chargers defense that has given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to receivers, including the second-best on the perimeter.The Chargers have given up just eight TDs per game.possession along with the fifth-lowest yards per possession.targets (7.0) and the fourth-lowest catch percentage (59%). Only two receivers (Pickens, AJ Brown) have 12.5 fantasy points against the Chargers since Week 9. Collins remains a lineup lock, but the team's secondary receivers don't provide viable Week 17 WR3/flex streamers.

Shadow coverage: Quentin Johnston is a candidate for Derek Stingley Jr.'s shadow this week.Stingley hasn't made the trip since Week 9, but has done so this season against high-profile receivers including DeVante Adams, Mike Evans, Brian Thomas Jr. and Sutton. Johnston has been inconsistent, but is arguably the team's No. 1 outside receiver and is performing well (4-104-1 on five targets).

Even if Stingley isn't shadowed, this is a tough one for the Chargers' receivers.The Texans allowed eight TDs;They had the lowest catch rate (54%) and second-lowest fantasy points for receivers, as well as the lowest EPA against the pass.Only six receivers reached 13 points against them, and the only two to reach 18 were superstars Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Nacua.It's best to avoid Los Angeles' receiver room this week.

Over/Under: 41.1 (12th highest)

Wind Capacity: Chargers 56% (13th highest)

Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers

Projected score: Packers 25, Ravens 21

Combination locks: Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers

Fantasy Scoop: Romeo Doubs had 84 yards, one touchdown and 19.4 fantasy points against the Bears on Saturday.Despite his solid performance, Doubs remains a risky fantasy option.The veteran receiver was limited to six targets in the game, which was actually a step up from being held to four or fewer in the previous four games.In fact, before Saturday, Doubs had been held under 12.0 fantasy points for six straight games, averaging 5.5 per game during that span.Green Bay continues to spread the ball around, which makes Doubs, Christian Watson and Jayden Reed little more than flexible lottery picks.Even if the game against Baltimore is good, it's best to avoid these three here.

Over/Under: 46.2 (7th highest)

Win probability: Packers 65% (top 6)

Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals

Expected score: Bengals 27, Cardinals 24

Composició i formació: Jacoby Brissett, Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja'Marr Chase, Michael Wilson, Tee Higgins, Trey McBride

Fantasy Scoop: After Bam Knight finished the season, Michael Carter took over for Arizona on Sunday.Carter has 11 carries and a pair of targets in 30 snaps, compared to five carries and a target in 17 snaps for Emari Demercado and six carries and zero targets in nine snaps for Corey Kiner.The ground game was effective (127 total yards on 22 carries), but he never found the end zone, caught a pass or picked off 6.5 fantasy points from defenders.Carter should be expected to continue to lead the committee, making him a flexible option against a Bengals defense that has allowed the most yards and fantasy points and the second-most touchdowns (20) among running backs this season.

Shadow Report: Marvin Harrison Jr.is a candidate to watch in DJ Turner's shadow coverage this week. Turner has been shadowed often this season and has done well in those spots.The 12 receivers he's shadowed have averaged 8.4 fantasy PPG and gone just 2 for 13. After a slow start, the Bengals have fared well overall, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points against all receivers. There are only seven receivers with 16.0 fantasy points against the Bengals this season, and five of those came before Week 6. Put down Harrison's play in particular.

Over/Under: 50.2 (3rd highest)

Winner: Bengins 61% (10th best)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns

Praedicta score: Steelers 22, Browns 17

Lynet Castle: Kenneth Ganville, Harold Fannin JR.

Fantasy Scoop: Quinshon Judkins (foot) is out for the season.The identity of his replacement will depend on his health, as rookie Dylan Sampson is healthy but has missed the last two games with a hand injury.Following Judkins' departure on Sunday, Trayveon Williams (three carries and four targets on 20 snaps) and Raheim Sanders (11 carries and one target on 19 snaps) took over.Sanders (46 yards on one touchdown) 12) is the leading ball carrier, while Williams (55 yards on seven touchdowns) is the preferred passer.

Both will likely play similar roles if Sampson isn't there. And he's better off the bench against a Steelers defense that's allowed just seven touchdowns this season when Sampson returns. He's also worth considering as a flex dart. He started for Cleveland when Jukins left in Week 1, and while he didn't do much on the ground (29 yards on 12 carries), he added 64 yards on eight targets.

Over/Under: 38.9 (Below)

Chance of winning: Steelers 66% (fifth highest)

New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans

Predicted score: Saints 20, Titans 19

Lineup: Chris Olaf

Fantasy Scoop: With Devin Neal (IR) exiting last week, the Saints turn to a backfield committee led by Taysom Hill.Hill had a busy afternoon as a passer (38 yards on one touchdown), rusher (team-high 12 carries for 42 yards) and receiver (6-4-36-0 receiving line).He played 34 snaps.Hill was followed by Orderric Estime (44), although Estime only gained 36 yards on eight touches (Evan Hull played 16 snaps and gained 3 yards on five touches).If Alvin Kamara stays there, Hill's heavy usage and TE credentials are enough to put him on the TE1 radar this week.There's some obvious risk here, as Hill is rated at 6.1 fantasy points.It's one of 11 games this season, but he hadn't been given such a prominent role before Sunday.

Over/under: 39.4 (15th highest)

Odds to Win: Saints 53% (15th highest)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

Expected score: Jaguars 27, Colts 21

Lineup Blocking: Jonathan Taylor, Travis Etienne Jr., Jakobi Meyer

Fantasy Scoop: Parker Washington had career-highs in passing yards (145) and fantasy points (26.5), while also finding the end zone against the Broncos on Sunday.Washington has put up 17-plus fantasy points in four of its last seven games, but has fallen to 9.0 points in the other three games.Washington has Pat Surtain II (shadowing Brian Thomas Jr.) and Riley Moss (mostly over Meyers) as the team's top two.He took advantage of keeping his receivers in check, and the duo combined for just 63 yards on 11 targets.

This is unlikely to happen, especially considering Washington totaled 79 yards on seven targets in its first two games against Thomas and Meyers (Weeks 13 and 15).The Colts represent a good matchup (they gave up the most catches to receivers and the third-most fantasy points), but, while Meyers is still a fringe WR2 and Thomas a WR3/flex, Washington is best left on the bench and nothing more than a Flex lottery ticket in deep contests.

High / low: 47.8 (the top 6)

Chance to Win: Jaguars 72% (Top 3)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins

Estimated score: Dolphins 22, Buccaneers 22

Lock Lineup: Devon Achan, Becky Irving, Mike Evans, Jaylin Weddle

Fantasy scoop: Quinn Ewers made his first NFL start on Sunday.Bad news, Miami lost 45-21 and Ewers was held to zero TDs, two INTs and 6.9 fantasy points.The good news is that he completed 67% of his passes and had a healthy 260 passing yards on 30 attempts (8.7 YPA).Miami's offense was efficient and saw strong production from Achan (18.0 fantasy points), Jaylen Wright (12.3), Waddle (12.2) and Malik Washington (10.2).

Granted, the game was against one of the most dangerous defenses in the league (Bengals), but Week 17 features a matchup against a Buccaneer defense that has been pretty generous in the fantasy.Achane remains a lineup lock, as does Waddle, who put up 72 yards on nine carries (31% team share) in Ewers' start.Darren Waller (3-40-0 on five targets last week) is a deep league streaming option against a Tampa Bay defense that allowed 10 touchdowns and the seventh-most TE fantasy points.

Over/under: 43.9 (tenth highest)

Chance of winning: Dolphins 52% (lowest)

New England Patriots @ New York Jets

Expected score: Patriots 29, Jets 16

Blocking Lineup: Drake May, TreVayon Henderson, Stefon Diggs

Fantasy Scoop: Brady Cook has taken most of the Jets' quarterback snaps in three straight games, and the results haven't been great.Cook completed 30-35 passes per game, but was in the 163-188 range in all three games, totaling just one touchdown pass and six INTs while averaging 5.4 yards per attempt.The offensive struggles are taking away from the fantasy output of the team's skill players, as Adonai Mitchell's 17.4 points in Week 15 was the only instance of a Jets player averaging 13.5 points in those three games.

That drought includes Breece Hall, who managed just 143 yards and zero touchdowns on 46 touches (6.1 PPG) all season and was no more than an RB2 against a Patriots defense that allowed the fewest yards per carry (3.9) and third-most fantasy points this season.No other Jets should line up, with Mitchell the closest in flex value.

Over/Under: 44.8 (8th highest)

Odds to Win: Patriots 91% (Highest)

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers

Predicted score: Seahawks 24, Panthers 20

Lineup lock: Jackson Smith-Njigba

Fantasy Scoop: Kenneth Walker III is having his best fantasy season with 164 yards and one TD on 14 carries.Walker's 25.4 fantasy points give him four games of 18-plus points this season, though he's been held to 13.1 or less in each of his 11 games (7.7 average).Walker remains in a full committee with Zach Charbonneau, who limited him to 12.7 sacks and 2.1 sacks per game.

Charbonnet served as the primary goal line back, helping with nine touchdowns and 11 carries inside the 5-yard line, compared to three TDs and five carries inside for Walker.Walker's role has generated inconsistent fantasy output, but the good news is a plus game this week against a 4.8-per-carry Carolina defense.yards (sixth-most) and eighth-most fantasy points allowed to a back.Walker is on the RB2 radar.

Shadow report: Tetairoa McMillan and Carolina's other receivers must be stopped by a Seattle defense that gave up the 11th-most fantasy opportunities to receivers, but the fourth-most time on the perimeter (McMillan fits 80% of the time).Even after last week's strong performance against Nagua, the Seahawks gave up the sixth-fewest yards, the fewest yards per target (6.4) and the lowest three-point catch rate for receivers (57%).Only two wideouts have reached 15 fantasy points against them since Week 7.Nacua's big game gives McMillan hope for some splash plays, but hopes will run on the money.

Over/Under: 44.2 (9th highest)

Chances of winning: Seahawks 64% (7th highest)

New York Raiders @ Las Vegas Raiders

Estimated score: Giants 23, Raiders 20

Squad Locks: Ashton Jeanty, Wan'Dale Robinson

Fantasy Scope: When Jackson Dart retires someday, Week 16 of the 2025 season may go down as the least productive game of his NFL career.The rookie played the full game, but was 7-of-13 for 33 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT, adding only 7 yards on two carries.Dart finished his first nine starts with a 21.8 average and a 0.02 fantasy score.

The dude was shocking and made him dangerous in Week 17, but it's worth noting that he was against a Minnesota defense that allowed the second fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Life should be a little easier this week against a Raiders defense that allows the sixth highest EPA against the passing game. Dart is still in the QB1 discussion because all his body of work was excellent from a fantasy point of view, but he is no longer a safe starting option.

Over / Under: 43.5 (11th highest)

Increase in probability: Giants 62% (9th highest)

Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills

Projected score: Bills 26, Eagles 24.

Key line: Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, James Cook III, A.J.Don

Shadow Report: Subtract Buffalo's receivers against a Philly defense that has given up the fewest fantasy points to receivers over the last eight weeks.During that span, Philadelphia allowed the third-fewest points to the perimeter and the second-fewest points to the slot.Incredibly, only three receivers (Lamb, Pickens, Jameson Williams) averaged 8.5 fantasy points against them during those eight games.The Eagles have allowed the fewest touchdowns (six) and the second-fewest sack percentage (55%) of the season.We're already avoiding Bills receivers for the most part, but this suggests that Khalil Shakir is a poor Week 17 broadcast option.

Shadow report: Brown will likely draw in shadow coverage from Christian Benford this week.Benford walks with Garrett Wilson (9.0 fantasy points per game), Tyreek Hill (15.9), Olav (11.0), Drake London (31.8), McMillan (16.9), Kelce (10.6), Emeka Egbuka (9.0), Collins (8.5), DK Metcalf (8.5).Chameter 4 after that (1.0) and Chameter 4 (2.2) 9 after 6. Nine wide receivers averaged 13.1 fantasy points, although four straight were held to single digits.Brown has been hot (an impressive 21.4 PPG in his last five outings), so he remains a lock in the lineup, but the danger of his skins is higher than usual.

High/Low: 49.3 (Top 5)

Odds of winning: 58% rate (twelfth highest)

Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers

Expected scores: 49ers 29, Bears 26

With: Brock Purdy, Christian McFaffrey, Fiorge, George Kittle, George Kittle

Fantasy Scoop: It's been a bit scary for most games, but Caleb Williams averaged 21.0 points against Green Bay on Friday and now has 19-plus points in two straight and eight of 15 games this season.Williams has certainly had his share of duds (in 12 points in five games), but he has earned his place in the QB1 mix back every week, ranked top-10 among quarterbacks in passing yards, passing TDs, carries, rushing yards and, of course, touchdowns.This week, Williams found a 49ers defense that allowed 27 passes (sixth most) and fewest sacks (18) this season.Williams is what he has been for weeks: a fringe QB1.

Over/Under: 54.9 (highest)

Probability of Win: 49ers 58% (11th most)

Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta Falcons

Expected score: Rams 30, Falcons 22.

Maloko: Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams,

Shadow report: London may draw some shadow coverage from Emmanuel Forbes Jr.this week, though we're not too concerned considering Los Angeles has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to receivers this season, including the most over the past four weeks.London has been contested 67 percent of the time, and the Rams have allowed the third-most points per frame over the past month.In their last three games, the Rams have four different receivers.Allowed more than 23 fantasy points to punters.We can't count on any of Atlanta's other receivers, but London could be upgraded.

Shadow Report: Upgrade Rams receivers against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points over the past eight weeks, including the second-most points.The Falcons have allowed 18 touchdowns (fourth most) to receivers, and McMillan, Smith Njigba and Mitchell have 24 points against them since Week 11.Nakowa is in position for another elite performance, and along with Devinte Adams, Konata Mampfield is a Week 17 sleeper.

Over/Under: 51.9 (Second Place)

Win Probability: Aries 79% (2nd highest)