Facility est Outlook-secundo ad MMXXV - Bank of Canada

Results of the second quarter survey of 2025 |Vol. 22.2 |July 21, 2025

The Business Outlook Survey was conducted by face -to -face, video and telephone interviews from 8 to 28 May 2025. The impulse of the company leaders is conducted online every month; the latest results are starting in April, May and June 2025. The publications for the quarter also include the results of the awareness of the Council and special consultations with companies and organizations in the sector in the sector sensitive to trade.

-Ruffufus, AtensFuffs, and Splillover effect on the business of the mental economy, and the worst of the world's worst in the last quarter.

- The sale approach is slow to despair of common concerns about the broadest worries of the economy.However, the results of the last monthly study indicate the approach of firms, especially the exporters, because some have been directly affected by current tariffs.

- Kecastiatians continue to submit prospects in employment and performance.day to keep their investment staff and investment levels in the next 12 months.

- Due to the category, tariffs and commercial decline due to the inventory of Catalia, but almost more expienerating ratings, most of their credit costs, although they plan to develop some of the customers, this develops some of the growth.

- expect to help in the short Interm - the amount of money returning from the specified level at the end of 2024.

The tariff effects have materialized but the expectations of the future impact were relieved

Customs and commercial voltages depend on the views of many organizations.In some cases, most traders implemented a negative impact on the forecasts and sale of past quarterly, and organizations expect that they will continue.

In the meantime, the company has changed their hope as a bad influence, as the situation is very bad waiting for the last quarter, with the last hope at the highest level of one-third.

Graph 1: Fewer corporations like the last quarter, expects negative effects of rates

Last quarter's past, the company's economic environment is unsatisfactory, which makes them difficult to build accurate forecast.Although they make it difficult or difficult.Fewer businesses are considered the most negative state of planning.

However, uncertainty about financial, economic and political conditions remains the main concern for companies.The concern for the rates that directly affect Canadian companies, new concerns, new concerns have arisen on the global exposure to the world economy and cancer tariffs.Intensive companies maintain new investment plans and manage their funds conservatively 1).

Centers sentiment, although still subdued, has improved from the sharp declines registered in March and April 2025 (Diagram 2).Both the previous declines and the recent refusal were seen among exporters and not executives, although the feeling among exporters, especially in the earlier stage of the business conflict, dropped sharply.Continuous concern about business tension.

Chart 2: Blocked the recent privacy of the recent privacy

Poor demand is widely

G -TERM business Sasa Permissions have been reduced in the second quarter of 2025. The balance of the future advertisement was like arising.Most business reported their symptoms rejected (eg Conety Intevevenions) compared to 12 months ago their marks (chart 3).This weakness can make up impacts from trade, for example:

- Poor costs for services and capital from business clients

- Small consumer costs or concerns that consumers can start spending

-W weak outlook in the housing department

Between oil and gas in the middle of the gas and in the global oil prices

For exporters, the inability to short -term sales indicators partially reflected exports at the beginning of the year before the invoices were enforced and then the slowdown continued as customers had already saved the goods.

Form 3: The Index of the Company Sales Company

However, the immediate effects of price on business perspectives are less serious than in the first quarter.Perspectives have improved among businesses that are strongly affected by trade tensions because the tariffs that have been implemented so far are less widely affected.present in invoices.This is reflected in improved expectations to increase export sales (Figure 4).However, in special consultations with bank staff, exporters are currently facing US sectoral tasks - including steel and aluminum and aluminum producers.

Graphics 4: Outlux for export sale improved

There are always plans to expand the capacity

Most companies have reported that both their physical capacity and the size of the workforce were sufficient.The share of companies that are difficult to meet unexpected demand increases is under its historical average (Figure 5, yellow line).There is little evidence that companies are facing difficult problems that limit their ability to meet, or they can find it difficult to buy critics, report that having a shortage of workforce is lower than average (Fig. 5, green line).

Graph 5: Most companies have enough capacity

In this quarter, the investment intentions of the companies have been muted, the balance of opinions is smaller than its long -term average.Most companies again combine their investment plans or suspend new investments:

- Soft request

- Running uncertainty

- There is existing strength

More companies are focusing their investments on regular maintenance (Chart 6).Few companies expect IPOD, tariffs and trade tensions to have a negative impact on their investment plans.This is especially true for people in the trade and capital-intensive production sector.

6. Table: The investment plan is focused on maintaining existing capital

Similarly, recruitment intention was further suppressed by the company to increase the labor force next year (Graph 7).The votes of the companies are hired to meet the expected sales, fill empty positions or keep excessive labor below average.Consumer expectations, employees under trade sensitivity, business concerns increased, but fell to the previous quarter.

Asked for loses, many firms just said they had to be forgiven if they would be a little bit or long-in

Graph 7: The Companies Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan

Salpical Companies for Wage Grants in the coming year to continue to move lower (Diagram 8).Previous legacy and weak demand will stress down on companies of companies.What they consider to enlarge a normal wage.

Table 8: Payment of wages continues to tear

A comment of costs from trade voltage remained

The value of pressure continues to spread.About half of the companies were due to additional expenses related to tariffs.

In this case, Tariffs and business systems have stressful source of stress to suggest the 12 months ago (images.

9. Table: Due to taxes, companies are now expecting economic economic growth in the room

The tariff -related cost increase is putting pressure on the expected sales prices of transactions.But the current weakness in competitive stress and demand limits the ability of organizations to deliver these costs to consumers.A lot of companies absorb a portion of these increased costs, pushing their dividends together in an attempt to preserve the market share (Chart 11).

Graph 10: Companies expect stable growth in their sales prices

Figure 11: Many businesses absorb customs costs through restrictions

Inflation expectations will return to later -2024 levels after the increase in the last quarter (chart 12).Like the last quarter, tariffs are the main driver of inflation expectations.disinflication.Meanwhile, inflation expectations of higher reach, somewhat higher but remain within the bank's target.

Mountain 12: Short-Pondok-Pondok

Campaign 1: Selling and customers reported that uncontrollably affects their planning

Half of the risk is not familiar with the Canada Outlook Outage License.One of the recent industry.In all the cycles of the world.

Another source of uncertainty for businesses is the uncertainty created by consumers due to commercial disputes.In the Bank's Canadian research on users 'expectations, more than users' routine said that future forecasts are particularly difficult to reduce home costs, delays in delays, delays in delays and delays in delays.How will demand demands?

Faced with high uncertainty, companies are reluctant to make expensive and rigid decisions that can be inappropriate as a trade policy or change economic circumstances.

- Then a quarter companies said they had reduced their investment or employment plans (Chart 1-A, Panel B).

- This includes keeping employment;The proportion of companies planning to keep staff on the next year is on the survey.

- Likewise, many companies talked about continuing with the ongoing investment plans, but left the new capital expenditure designed to increase capacity or improve productivity.Many residential builders said, for example, they postpone new projects due to the uncertainty about the expectations of sale and the cost of construction.

- Some institutions are working to raise their balances, which is growing to boost their balances, increasing additions to more money, economic mediators.

- The status in the Research and regulations in Newfoundland, Labradar and Keythia, their customers are required to pay attention to the seller or customer.

Graph 1-A: Uncertainty weighs financial decisions, consumer spending and business investments

Table 1-A: Bank financial decisions;

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The consequences of research reports presented with respondents incorrectly displayed Canadian bank views.

The Canadian Works research with the local local launching staff were selected by the 100 functions in the domestic production of the Canadian domestic production.

The pulse of the bank of Canada's bank is a 700 to 1,000 Canadian business leaders who respond each month to one of the three short online surveys.For more information about business leaders pulse, see P.T.Chernis, C. D'in Souza, K. MacLean, T. Slive and F. Suvantulov, "The Pulse of Business Leaders," Bank of Cancess Paper Nr.2022-14 (June 2022).