“Without restrictions, China will have 630,000 cases per day”

be the China If it didn’t have the strictest restrictive measures on traffic and travel in place, it would have an average of 630 thousand new cases of Covid-19 virus Every day without more effective vaccines and specific treatments. This is what emerged from a computational model developed by mathematicians at Peking University for the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Ccdcp). According to Reuters and the Guardian, Chinese scientists have based their figures on the spread of the coronavirus in August in countries such as the US, UK, Spain, France and Israel, assuming the same countermeasures adopted by those countries are adopted. countries in China.

Study details

The worst case, which is more than 630 thousand cases per day, suggests the hypothesis that Beijing choosespolicy to combat covid It is practiced in the USA. It will drop to 454,000 if you adopt the procedures in force in France and over 275,000 if the model is British. “The estimates reveal a tangible possibility of a massive epidemic that would burden the health system unsustainably.”, read the report cited by the Guardian. One of our discoveries – Chinese scientists’ recommendations continue – There is a clear warning that, at the moment, we are not ready to adopt “re-opening” strategies, which are based solely on the premise that vaccines stimulate herd immunity, as some Western countries claim.

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Queenie Bell

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