weather forecast. It’s official, El Niño is back, possible consequences «3B Meteo

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NOAA announces that El Nino has arrived
NOAA announces that El Nino has arrived

El Niño is officially back after a four-year hiatus So much so that sort of has it Issued “El Nino Advisory” in its update bulletin; According to this notice, the phenomenon will exist and is expected to continue. El Niño is expected to intensify over the next few months; The probability of it becoming a strong event is 56% while the probability of a moderate event is about 84% at its peak, i.e. between fall and winter in one hemisphere.

El Niño and La Niña are two weather events with opposite characteristics.

They arise from pressure and temperature changes in the Pacific Ocean. Without going into their formation, we can say that these events are one of the mechanisms of heat exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere. In practice, they serve to “regulate” the climate. El Niño is characterized by the accumulation of warm water over the eastern central Pacific Ocean. The opposite phase is La Niña instead. They are cyclical events that can last consecutively for 9-12 months in the hot phase and for 1-3 years in the cold phase.

During the month of May, weak El Niño conditions strengthened in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The most pronounced thermal anomalies in the Enso region originate from Region 1+2, that is, those near Ecuador and Peru. Water temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region are close to +1°C above normal.

Enso Development Zones
Enso Development Zones

In the past month, the atmosphere has also shown signs of El Niño; Evidence from a weakening of the Walker cycle comes in the form of weaker trade winds over the western Pacific and increased convection and precipitation over the equatorial Pacific. Convection has also decreased over Indonesia, another feature of Walker’s weaker circulation. The paired ocean-atmosphere system is distinguished by the SOI showing standard deviation -1. Another element is the global atmospheric moment which shows positive values.

El Niño affects weather patterns Significantly increasing the likelihood of droughts, floods, and extreme heat waves where the phenomenon affects most, that is, in areas close to its development. Southeast Asian countries, for example, may experience major problems during El Niño events, with India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Australia often experiencing little or no rainfall. The phenomenon in the months of May and July can lead to a lack of monsoon rainfall between Pakistan and India.

the“Australia For example, it suffers more than others from the effects of El Niño and La Niña. With La Niña, Australia experienced exceptional rainfall, particularly in the eastern sector. On the other hand, during El Niño the situation will be completely different, with less rain than usual, while the possibility of higher temperatures will increase and also an increase in the risk of fires, exacerbated by climate change. in ca It can rain more during wet weather during rivers in the Atlantic Ocean It would reduce the possibility of tornadoes due to increased shear. However, this condition can be counteracted by the exceptionally warm Atlantic Ocean this year. in the Horn of Africa Climate change, warming of the Indian Ocean and La Niña have led to four unprecedented dry seasons in a row; Instead, El Niño will cause drought in the Ethiopian highlands in July and September and more precipitation during the wet season.

El Niño is not a visible phenomenon in Europe. There is a lot of variability in the Euro-Atlantic sector and the signal is affected by other factors that can mask or mitigate this phenomenon in the Pacific.

There is also a great deal of interest in global temperature; A very intense (very strong El Niño) event could lead to a new global temperature record in 2024 after 2016. There is already a lot of interest about how intense El Niño could have its biggest effects in this context in the following year. its development. The years with a very strong phenomenon coincide with an upward climatic step as in 1982-83, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016.

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Harold Manning

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