Maneuver: The launch will be a race against time

The timing of the political elections will conflict with the timing of the public finances, in order to adjust the budget maneuvering. A strict calendar actually imposes a race against time on the future government to avoid a “deadline” of December 31, when temporary practice will begin according to the rules established by the Constitution.

In practice, not agreeing to the budget maneuver by the end of the year results in a sort of quota on expenses that is divided into four by twelve, in practice with a quarterly trap, limiting expenses.

But the process leading up to the maneuver begins much earlier. The fork is the approval of the new macroeconomic forecasts – from GDP to deficit to debt – that the government is listing in the Nadef, Defense Update Memorandum to be submitted by September 27. Since the times when there is no new government, it will be Draghi’s Executive Minister of Economy, Daniel Franco, who will work to adjust the new expectations that obviously cannot have a programmatic character, that is, they will not be able to take the measures you intend to take in consedration. They will have to limit themselves to referring – as they technically say – to “trends” in the current legislation. That is, the direction of the economy in the absence of interventions, but only on the basis of what has already been determined in the past. Then by October 15, a similar document with estimates should be sent to the European Union. Even in this case it will be difficult to have a new government.

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Then there is the deadline set for the start of the maneuver: October 20. But as recent years have shown, the date is not mandatory, and no one – as has been said in the past during long councils of ministers – has stopped the clocks to meet the deadline. In fact, often after approval, it was a long time before the final text reached the Chambers. But it is clear that the political coalitions on the ground for the elections must have already drawn up a draft budget, since the lack of decisions will have a decisive impact on some issues. This is the case for pensions that see, in the absence of new rules, the disappearance of the exit flexibility rules now envisioned as share 102.

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