(Written by Bernardo Pasquale). From the “mediator” edition of Cibus connects Italy In Parma, the strength of Made in Italy food and a new identity for the global consumer are emerging. The acceleration witnessed by the new food proposal is unprecedented and reflects, on the one hand, the strong influence of technology and knowledge that has entered the world of production, and on the other hand, a new concept of nutrition, more attentive and aware, responsible and sustainable. The prestigious Nielsen Institute presented a report that shows this new wave from consumption.
Economic situation
There is no doubt that the pandemic, the energy crisis and the economic situation have decisively influenced the contemporary evolution of consumer attitudes. The Nielsen Institute took into account data originating from the following countries: Germany, France, Spain, Italy, England and the United States. 39% is the median value that quantifies the number of global consumers who claim they are in worse financial condition than in 2021. For Italy it is 36%, Germany is 59%, England is 55%, France is 36% and the US is 40%. It is the first time that such negative values have hit the large German and English economies, and this element is causing great damage to the world economy.
In the European Union, 38% feel affected by a slowing economy while in the United States, 40%; 81% in the EU feel overwhelmed by the high cost of living, 74% in the US; 28% of the European Union say they are shocked by the geopolitical conflict, in the USA it is the personal situation that shocks the consumer, but only 22%.
recessive factor
Forecasts for GDP increase in 2023 for Italy are 0.6%, France 0.7%, Germany 0.1%, Spain 1.4%, the UK -0.6% and the US 1,4%. The forecast for 2024 highlights the first signs of recovery even if the value in Italy is only 0.9%, in France 1.4%, Germany 1.4%, Spain 2%, the UK 0.9% and the US 1%. If we relate it to the average inflationary values for each country, the ratio will be decidedly negative. Inflation expectations for 2023 in Italy will be 6.1%, in France 5.2%, in Germany 6.3%, in Spain 4.4%, in the UK 6.6%, in the US 3, 8%. There will be a cooling from 2024 with the following projections: Italy 2.6%, France 2.8%, Germany 2.4%, Spain 2.3%, UK 3.3%, USA 2.8%.
Sales are increasing in value, and only wine is affected
Value sales values for 2022 vs. 2021 and forecasts for 2023 vs. 2022 outline a very interesting panorama of overall growth for virtually all segments, except for those of flat wines with negative values everywhere. For the plant-based sector, Italy will move from +15% in the first two years to +11.5% projection. Also for France, the driving segment will be +1.9% 2022 vs. 2021 and +7.9% 2023 vs. 2022. For all other countries, positive values for the first two years will go off negative values in the projection. Wine values all remained negative with the worst losses in Germany (-5.3% and -2.1%) and the UK (-7.3% and -3.7%). The baby food and coffee sectors are definitely positive, especially in the US with double-digit values and the same for the Spanish consumer. In Italy, the data for 2022 against 2021 was +6.3% for the baby food sector and +4.9% for the coffee sector. However, the forecasts for 2023 vs. 2022 are positive at +4.9% and +7.3%. The confectionery, snacks, confectionery and bars segment is growing a lot globally and is chosen by the consumer in Italy with +7.1% 2022 vs. 2021 and +13.1 on offer. Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States were also very positive. There will be a contraction in the home care sector in Italy from +4.3% to -4.3% forecast.
The consumer buys less but better!
The sound values are all low. Only vegetable products hold it but, only, in Italy with +12.9% 2022vs2021 and +3.6% 2023vs2022. For all other sectors, there are volume losses even in the double digits with the wine sector suffering the most. This means that the consumer is increasingly demonstrating a desire to control spending, to buy less but buy better. Proportionately increase the value of shopping by reducing the number of products purchased. This phenomenon is most pronounced in generations Z and Y.
In the next 12 months, a clear cut in everything related to food
Nielsen’s forecast for the next 12 months tells us that Italians will spend less in all of their most important purchase categories. On clothing – 36%, on electronics and technology – 34%, on food delivery and take-out – 30%, on consumer products – 11%, on holidays – 28%, on home entertainment – 20%, on meals out – 45% On transport – 20%, on energy and utilities – 13%. For meals out, the decrease is on average -40% for all countries participating in the research. With regard to mass consumption products, that is, everything that a consumer can find in a supermarket, only France and Italy both have a negative rate of 11%.
Global consumer strategies to contain the increase in prices
The strategies applied in the different countries considered in Nielsen’s research highlight fundamental differences in spending approaches. If in England and France 34% and 37% respectively control the total cost of the cart, thus setting a budget cap that is not exceeded, the United States and Spain respectively choose branded products by 29% and 42% of the distributor, the various branded lines for large supermarket chains; Alternatively, in Italy, along with Germany, the consumer tends to place more value on brands, and in the two countries the consumer mainly buys brands in promotion.
Will the external factor of exports and the internal factor of tourism save us from the crisis?
The data showing in 2023 is very similar to that for 2022. Exports in 2022 reached 624 billion, according to ICE President Matteo Zoppas. Of these, 59 billion are from the agri-food sector at +15%; 40 out of 59 billion came from the food sector alone, an increase of 20%. there Cebus and Totofood merger It will help operators and Made in Italy to play a more decisive role in the world. The agri-food sector employs 1.4 million workers. From 2000 to today, agro-food exports have grown by 20% in value terms. If all this data relates to Italy externally, let’s see that our country also plays nicely internally with the influx of tourists, in 2022, equivalent to 400 million in 2022 with an increase of 38.2% in 2021. Again this year Italy hopes for Equal to this number, buildings, reservations and data on occupancy of beds in tourist sites are very favorable.
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