At the start of winter in Australia, cases are above the average of the past five years, and hospitalizations are on track. A phenomenon caused by border closures for Covid or a precursor to a severe flu season here too?
cases influenza in australia This year they are increasing at levels well above average. Winter begins in June so this is just a sign for now, but it may be worth following the trend in this country as it usually anticipates the trend of influenza in the northern hemisphere.
Highest reports in the last 5 years
According to the report of the Department of Health Australia, since mid-April 2022 Influenza notifications weekly (lab-confirmed) It has exceeded the average of the past five years. The calculations have to be done on many previous years, because in 2020 and 2021 there was practically no flu season because Australia closed its borders or practiced quarantine at the entrance due to Covid. The highest notification rates were from January to May 29 in age groups 20-64 years (46%) and 10-19 years (33%). In the chart below of laboratory-confirmed cases, The last years of the flu Since 2017: The current rate is already sharp growth Even in advance.
Confirmation of admission to hospital
Obviously the data changes from week to week and it’s still too early to say if it will be a season on par with 2017 (particularly important). The viral strain known to cause infection: strain A, called H3N2. Confirmed the growth of parallel cases increase in hospitalsalmost identical to 2019 and Higher than 2017 And what one would normally expect in Australia in June.
The emergence of Covid has certainly led to a Enhanced ability to perform lab tests (hence finding cases): Many of the equipment used in swabs can pass to a flu virus test, but if you look at Positive rate (which measures cases in relation to the tests performed) in the guard laboratories, and it is observed that this is increasing in parallel with the increase in cases. There is also a rapid increase in reports for synchronous respiratory virus (RSV), adenovirus, rhinovirus, and enterovirus.
What does it portend?
Some see this as a result of the population’s waning immunity during border closures. Others like A harbinger of a major winter flu season in the northern hemisphere. It is always difficult to predict – commented on his blog Ian M Mackay, virologist and associate professor at the University of Queensland -. The Northern Hemisphere could recover all of these slightly modified viruses from Australia and there could be a big winter with SARS-CoV2 and influenza, but it’s too soon to tell.
Jun 9, 2022 (change on Jun 10, 2022 | 10:02am)
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