What is required of a head of state on the basis of an international mandate is certainly not ideal for a country; And also for Russia, which has officially become closer to the great leader Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. It is clear that the current situation makes it very difficult, if not impossible, to initiate any attempt at mediation and open negotiations to end the conflict. The full agreement of the United States and Europe with the ICC’s decision means that no one should declare their willingness to sit down at the table with the “wanted” for negotiation. But if you don’t deal with Putin, is it possible to reach a cease-fire and start serious discussions about the future of Ukraine and the disputed territories? Of course, the situation would be different if Vladimir Vladimirovich would no longer lead Russia. But does this scenario make any sense?
What is the easiest and most direct way to achieve change in the Russian Federation Summit?
Article 93 of the constitution approved in 1993 (and written on the French and American models) expressly provides for the possibility of impeachment and removal of the president for high treason or other serious charges. The procedure is not very simple and involves the State Duma, the Federation Council (upper house), the Supreme Court and the Constitutional Court. Naturally, a qualified majority (two-thirds) is required. The impeachment of Putin’s predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, has been attempted three times. But then the parliament was dominated by the opposition, formed primarily by the Communist Party. The last attempt was made, in 1998, on the basis of the existing constitution, but even in this case the votes necessary to move forward were not obtained, three hundred out of 450 members of the State Duma. But Putin, unlike Yeltsin, comfortably controls both the State Duma and the Federation Council. Parliament, as we have seen on hundreds of occasions, is entirely at your disposal. And even the so-called “opposition to the regime”, that is, above all the communists and liberal democrats who are tolerated, always side with the Kremlin on relevant issues.
Could the president be overthrown by the men who control the nerve centers of Russian power?
The coup is theoretically possible. But who should implement it? In 1991, the heads of the secret services and ministries of “power” (together with militants) tried to overthrow Gorbachev. But the heroes of the manifesto were all opponents of the then Soviet president, old conservative members of the communist apparatus. And they fail. Today the situation looks completely different. Power is controlled by figures very close to Putin. Dmitrij Medvedev, Putin’s colleague in the Leningrad commune, has already proven that by temporarily filling the post of chairman for his friend between 2008 and 2012. The head of the FSB is Alexander Bortnikov, Putin’s colleague in the KGB in Leningrad. The SVR foreign intelligence service is controlled by Sergej Narishkin, also of the Leningrad KGB. The interior was entrusted to Vladimir Kolokoltsev, who showed his loyalty to the Moscow police leadership during the riots marking Putin’s return to the Kremlin. In defense there is another loyalist, Serge Chogo who comes from Tuva (with a Ukrainian mother) and who owes his entire recent career only to the president. Experts say the real trait within the elite revolving around the president is Nikolai Patrushev, the former head of the Federal Security Service, and current secretary of the Security Council, who also comes from the Leningrad KGB. Patrushev has been nurturing the ambition that his son, Dmitry, the current minister of agriculture, who is often publicly praised by the president himself, take over the presidency after Putin. All lined up and covered, as we’ve seen. But in the event of dramatic economic and military breakthroughs, some may turn their backs on the leader. Patrushev with his family’s ambitions; Shougo because he was repeatedly humiliated by the poor results of the military special operation; Naryshkin, who was mocked live by Putin on the eve of the intervention in Ukraine.
Is it possible to imagine the overthrow of the regime through the actions of the political opposition and street demonstrations?
At the moment, this is a completely unrealistic assumption. The president still enjoys the support of more than 70 percent of the population; The opposition is in disarray or has fled abroad. Just in the past few days, there has been a fierce exchange of accusations between the anti-Putin groups, and therefore they are not united at all. Strict laws passed in recent years have made mass demonstrations impossible. Alternatively, the authorities could mobilize hundreds of thousands of supporters of the authority in the short term to take to the streets, if necessary.
Can the oligarchs, with all their money and political connections, engineer regime change?
Even that road seems too far at the moment. In Yeltsin’s time, the owners of huge industrial and raw materials conglomerates had enormous influence. One of them, Vladimir Potanin, was deputy prime minister. But upon his arrival in 2000, Putin put them in line. Dissidents, like Mikhail Khodorkovsky, have gone to jail. Today, those who were against Putin have fled abroad or are trying to draw as little attention as possible. Those who really mattered are all hand in hand with the boss. They come from Leningrad. They were neighbors at the dacha, childhood friends, or friends of judo. The Kovalchuk brothers, the Rotenberg brothers, Gennady Timchenko, etc. Then there are state deputies, such as Gazprom President Alexei Miller and Rosneft President Igor Sechin. All this without Putin would have ended.
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