Historic UK heatwave likely to be 10 times more likely due to climate crisis

Surrendered the recent historical heat wave that hit half of Europe, especially the United Kingdom 10 times more likely due to the climate crisis. This was revealed by a recent one Analytics Made by World Weather Attribution, which studied the heat wave that hit the British Isles in the second half of July, pushing the thermometer above 40 degrees for the first time in modern history.

maximum temperature It was achieved not only in England, Wales and Scotlandbut also across the Channel, in France, Germany, Switzerland, Spain and Italy. Several historical temperature records fell during this eventdue to the arrival of a powerful cyclone in North Africa.

Historic heat wave over Europe: For the UK, it’s 10 times more likely due to global warming

In Western Europe, as some studies confirm, heat waves appear to be increasing in frequency at a faster rate than previously expected.

Then the severe heat wave that hit Western Europe was analyzed by one wave Attribution study, aimed at understanding the extent to which human-caused global warming will affect the event. In this type of study, scientists analyze meteorological datacomparing it to the past and with a computer simulation comparing what happened to one parallel scenariowithout the effect of greenhouse gases.

The result showed that this heat wave reached levels higher than estimates by climate models: According to the estimates, had it not been for greenhouse gases from human activities, the heat wave temperatures would have risen. 2 degrees lower. On the other hand, weather records indicate that a heat wave would have occurred 4 degrees cooler.

But according to scientists, even climate models can underestimate the climate of the near future. Without a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, it is likely that The intensity and frequency of these extreme phenomena may increasemore than predicted by climate models.

According to the study, the heat wave that hit the UK is 10 times more likely due to the climate crisis. The model results predict a 1% chance that a similar heat wave will hit the UK again next year. But weather data reminds us that at the moment, similar events – extreme weather events – are becoming more frequent in Europe.

All this is worrying. Just two years ago, meteorologists from the British MetOffice service estimated that the probability of exceeding 40 degrees in the UK was 1 in 100compared to one in 1,000 in an untouched climate scenario.