Economy

GDP and pensions strike. The taxpayers will pay

The economic blow of the crisis that arose in 2020 with the onset of the “epidemic” and the restrictions imposed by the Italian government is about to reach annuities, especially for those who will leave the world of work starting next year: so it will be the new tests that will be affected and not the ones that already exist

The capitalization rate of the pension contribution portion, closely related to the trend of GDP in an earlier 5-year period, will be assessed. Despite such a long period of time, the jingle Bill In 2020 (9%) to produce a negative rate or 0.0215%. Only a 2015 law, when a similar situation occurs, can ensure that the revaluation of the amount will not remain negative and thus lead to a decrease in the total contributions paid by the worker before it is converted into an annual salary.

However, this does not mean that there will be no serious consequences for pensions, even compared to those who left their jobs this year (with a calculation based on GDP through 2019). The comparison with the calculations that would have been made in the case of a normal economic situation is unforgiving. When taking such a parallel, the reduction is more containable for those who collect the check with the mixed system (in fact, the contribution affects only the portion due as of 2012). On the other hand, the cut will be heavier for those who are about to retire contributor Pure (the discount on the total is 1%).

A negative impact of this kind will be suffered by those who will leave the world of work starting in 2023: B capitalization rate Just above 0 (and below what would have been recorded in the absence of post-Covid restrictive measures), the reduction in net contributions could approach 2%. The ax is ready to fall on the new pension checks, about 500 thousand by calculations (excluding social checks and inheritors’ allowances, which are calculated differently).

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It is true that the aforementioned 2015 law will prevent having to deal with a negative rate, but the transition to zero will not be easy: the state’s intervention to close the gap will, in fact, directly return to affect the pockets of Italian taxpayers in Re-evaluations relating to the next few years. The choice can be made during the study of the budget law.

Thelma Binder

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