Down Rt and incidence ratio. “The wave can die” –

The time of calculators is back. To certify the first real brake of Fourth wave. The data depicting approximations of curves are those of incidence. as it’s known, The delta variant has revived the infection. But the development of weekly cases shows how The peak is not far away. “If the trend remains linear, that could happen By August 15‘, he explains Carlo La Vecchia, Professor of Epidemiology in the state.

Carlo La Vecchia
Carlo La Vecchia

Unlike other waves, Lombardy, like the rest of Italy, has a small number at the end of June. Meanwhile, the rest of Europe is setting records Monster Limited in terms of hospitalization from the effect of vaccinations. But from 2 July, with slight overlap of the infection tail of the alpha strain, iAscent begins: In Lombardy from July 5 to 12, the infection rate rose by 48 percent, from 13 to 19, even, to 101 percent, is inevitable In conjunction with the remnants of post-European celebrations. There is a fear of the direction of photography compared to the United Kingdom and Spain, Instead the virus begins to slow down. Cases increased by 38 percent between 20 and 26, and by 28 percent over the following seven days. The increase this week is likely to be lower. “If it keeps going down Also in a week RT could cross the hill below 1 and it will be a confirmation that the wave is flat and then goes off – La Vecchia continues -. The predictions we can make now are different and better than they were ten days ago.”

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Emphasis also comes fromThe direction of the RT curve in the Milan area, which fell to 1.23 from 1.31 its average for the last 14 days, after also reaching 1.7. The same goes for the city, with the last reading at 1.14, sharply down from the remainder of July. Nobody’s betting on Covid bounces anymore, but the feeling is that this wave also repeats well-known rhythms. However, the real difference can be seen in the great stability of the hospitalization trend, which do not follow, a little deferred, that of infection. Mathematical arithmetic says so Lombardy, even in its prime moment, could still be less than a thousand mark. The ceiling of the infection can be touched for ten days and then the real descent begins. The data for Lombard has been confirmed to be better than many other regions in Italy. “It depends on a number of reasons: first of all many left, the vaccination campaign He secured the old and the weak better than anywhere else and then stayed The most affected area in the past, which is why the number of immunized people is still higher. The third wave was also softer than in other parts of Italy”, concludes La Vecchia.

This is where the new August game unlocks, which will be different from the July game for a number of elements. To push the infection back could be a gradual return from holidays, from holiday resorts where the virus is spreading Still from tip to tip. But there are at least two factors that can be compensated for. And therefore People who have been vaccinated with two doses will have a wider and wider range. Then there will be the inevitable green lane effect Which will be mandatory from Friday. which will focus social life on vaccinated people. Thus, the balance for August can hold. In light of the big test of reopening schools and activities in September.

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August 4, 2021 | 08:48

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Maggie Benson

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