Personal consumption expenses: The personal consumption expenditures index is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, and the latest data will be kept on track ahead of the central bank’s policy meeting on November 3. According to a Refinitiv survey of economists, the leading personal consumption expenditures index, which excludes volatile components such as energy and food, is expected to rise 0.2 percent in September after a 0.3 percent increase in August. This would push the year-on-year increase to 3.7 percent.
big oil: Investors will be watching how the recent jump in oil prices to seven-year highs works for ExxonMobil and Chevron, which reported their earnings before Wall Street’s opening bell. According to Refinitiv, Exxon is expected to post a net income of more than $6.5 billion, a level not reached since 2016. Chevron’s net profit is expected to exceed $4.2 billion, the highest level in years.
Earnings in the United States: Newell Brands, the company behind the Sharpie and Sunbeam brands, reports before the bell, as does Colgate-Palmolive. They are set to join a growing list of companies highlighting the strength of consumer demand and the impact of supply chain disruption. Royal Caribbean Cruises is expected to see an increase in revenue for the third quarter, when it will be able to resume sailing in the United States after a long pause during the pandemic.
Consumer confidence: The University of Michigan consumer confidence reading is expected to remain stable at 71.4 in October, unchanged from this month’s preliminary reading. Consumer sentiment is believed to have weakened in recent weeks and months due to rising inflation and eroding purchasing power, but some economists believe that the historically high savings rate may still fuel the race for expenditures.
Mexico’s GDP: Mexico’s economic growth is expected to rise 6% year-on-year in the three months through the September quarter, compared to 19.6% three months ago, according to Refinitiv.
Colombian interest rates: Colombia’s central bank is expected to raise its benchmark lending rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.25%, to remain in a group of Latin American economies raising interest rates in an attempt to tame inflation. The Banco de la República board announced its first rate hike since 2016 at the end of September.
This post has been edited to reflect that consumer confidence data from the University of Michigan was an update of its initial reading.
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