Confindustria: the rally can be seen, a closer recovery – the economy

“In the first quarter of 2021, the severity of the downward trend in GDP declines from 6.6% in the previous quarter to 1.4%.” This is Istat’s comment on the preliminary estimate for the quarter. The GDP, adjusted for calendar effects and the seasonal rate, decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter and by 1.4% in terms of trend. The new contraction was “affected to a lesser extent” compared to the fourth quarter of 2020, especially in the services sector, by the economic impacts of measures taken to combat health emergencies.

“The Italian economy sees recovery from the crisis, in line with Europe,” notes the Confindustria Study Center with its monthly “Rapid Conditions” analysis, and warns. “The world has already resumed.” GDP “closer to recovery”: In “Italy, the first easing of the anti-virus restrictions of the Covid virus began in April. This will lead to a small positive sign for GDP in the second quarter,” a scenario in which a strong recovery is confirmed and will take place in the third quarter, Thanks to increased vaccinations, “despite the” continuing risks of decline. “From Pnrr,” recovery aid will actually arrive in the second half of 2021. ”

The first quarter of 2021 saw a loss of 254,000 employees compared to the previous quarter. The level of employment decreased by 1.1%, according to Istat data. In this quarter, both job seekers (+ 2.4%, equal to + 59K) and inactive people 15-64 years old increased (+ 1.0%, equal to + 134k units).

“The slight growth in employment registered in February” continues in March 2021, according to statistics, which recorded 34,000 more employees than the previous month (+ 0.2%). Compared to March 2020, the first month of the lockdown, there are 565,000 fewer employees, and compared to pre-epidemic, in February 2020, about 900,000 fewer. Growth in employment includes men, temporary employees, the self-employed and nearly all ages. The number of people between the ages of 35 and 49 is declining, as are women and permanent employees. The employment rate rose to 56.6% (+0.1) which is two points below the pre-Covid level. The youth unemployment rate rose to 33% in March, returning to the January level, which was the highest in recent years, as of April 2018.
The increase discovered by the Institute of Statistics, compared to February, was 1.1 percentage points, and compared to March 2020, 5.4 points.

See also  Borsa Italiana, commentary on today's session (May 28, 2021)

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